Bayesian Model Check -- Step by Step

1. Match Header. Documents match name, description, participating data sources, and prior estimate of total matches.
2. Total Matches. Check whether the observed total match count is within two standard deviations of your estimated prior mean value. If not, look for an explanation.
3. Total Probability of Error. Check whether observed error probabilities are close to your prior estimates. If not, look for an explanation.
4. X Factors. Check whether observed X factors are close to your prior estimates. If not, look for an explanation.
5. Match Weights. Check whether observed average match weights are close to average weights based on your prior estimates. If not, look for an explanation.
6. Tolerance Tests. This section documents results of tolerance tests you performed.
7. Outcome Tests. This section documents results of outcome tests you performed.